Miscellaneous: Blog Suspended

Recently I haven't had enough time for the wide reading needed to make this blog interesting. Check back in April. -- DougL

Health: Pot Dependence in Adolescence Is Linked to a Long-Term Drop in IQ

With the Dunedin study data, researchers could compare subjects' IQ scores from age 13, before they began using any drugs, with their scores at age 38, and they could also eliminate confounding factors like education level and other drug and alcohol use. They found that those who used pot heavily showed a significant decline in IQ, particularly if they began during adolescence. The most frequent users experienced the most damage. And cutting down on marijuana after adolescence did nothing to alleviate the decline.

While these results suggest that developing adolescent brains are particularly vulnerable to the effects of marijuana and can suffer permanent harm from smoking pot, the drop occurred only in users diagnosed with cannabis dependence, which indicates more than just a fondness for marijuana, points out epidemiology blogger Suzi Gage. Such frequent users are not only more rare than casual consumers, they also tend to have other problems that getting high may help them face, such as depression.

For more, see Pot Dependence in Adolescence Is Linked to a Long-Term Drop in IQ by Sophie Bushwick, August 29, 2012 at 80beats.

Government: Privately Funded Congressional Trips

One of the most famous travel boondoggles -- a golf trip to Scotland for members of Congress and staff members, hosted by the lobbyist Jack Abramoff -- led Congress in 2007 to tighten restrictions on who could sponsor trips and for how long. But despite the new restrictions, the number of Congressional trips paid for by outside groups has actually increased since 2007, to more than 1,600 from about 1,300, according to Legistorm, a research group that tracks Congressional data. To comply with the new restrictions, many political and lobbying groups have turned to nonprofit groups they set up and finance to host the Congressional trips.

For more, see Skinny-Dipping in Israel Casts Unwanted Spotlight on Congressional Travel by Eric Lichtblau and Jodi Rudoren, August 21, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Education: College Graduates' Non-Recession

For more, see College Graduates' Non-Recession by Dylan Matthews, August 16, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Economics: Yes, We Have No Inflation

For more, see Yes, We Have No Inflation by Dylan Matthews, August 15, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Government: The No. 1 Political Fantasy in America Today

About Paul Ryan's vote against Simpson-Bowles debt reduction commission's proposal as an example of political fantasy:

Ryan was willing to sacrifice the good for the sake of the ultimate.

In order to get this ultimate solution, though, Ryan was betting that three things would happen. First, he was betting that Republicans would beat President Obama. Second, he was betting that Republicans would win such overwhelming Congressional majorities that they would be able to push through measures Democrats hate. Third, he was betting that a group of Republican politicians would unilaterally slash one of the country's most popular programs and that they would be able to sustain these cuts through the ensuing elections, in the face of ferocious and highly popular Democratic opposition.

To put it another way, Ryan was giving up significant debt progress for a political fantasy.

Ryan's fantasy happens to be the No. 1 political fantasy in America today, which has inebriated both parties. It is the fantasy that the other party will not exist. It is the fantasy that you are about to win a 1932-style victory that will render your opponents powerless.

Every single speech in this election campaign is based on this fantasy. There hasn't been a speech this year that grapples with the real world -- that we live in a highly polarized, evenly divided nation and the next president is going to have to try to pass laws in that context.

It's obvious why candidates talk about the glorious programs they'll create if elected. It fires up crowds and defines values. But we shouldn't forget that it's almost entirely make-believe.

In the real world, there are almost never ultimate victories, and it is almost never the case (even if you control the White House and Congress) that you get to do what you want.

In the real world, leaders have a dual consciousness. They have a campaign consciousness in which they argue for the policies they think are best for the country. But then they have a governing consciousness, a mind-set they put on between elections. It says: O.K., this is the team the voters have sent to Washington. How can we navigate our divides to come up with something suboptimal but productive?

Paul Ryan has a great campaign consciousness, and, when it comes to things like Medicare reform, I agree with him. But when he voted no on the Simpson-Bowles plan he missed the chance to show that he also has a governing consciousness. He missed the chance to do something good for the country, even if it wasn't the best he or I would wish for.

For more, see Ryan's Biggest Mistake by David Brooks, August 23, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Taxes: How Romney Could Raise Taxes on 95% of the Country

For more, see How Romney Could Raise Taxes on 95% of the Country--in 1 Tall Graph by Derek Thompson, August 1, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Technology: Skilled Work, Without the Worker

A good article about the advance of robotics in manufacturing is Skilled Work, Without the Worker by John Markoff, August 18, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Healthcare: Five Takeaways from the Kaiser Tracking Poll

For more, see Five Takeaways from the Kaiser Tracking Poll by Sarah Kliff, August 16, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Taxes: Indigestion for 'Les Riches' In a Plan for Higher Taxe

For more, see Indigestion for 'Les Riches' In a Plan for Higher Taxe, August 7, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Politics: The Truth About Voter Fraud

The Republican National Lawyers Association -- devoted to promoting "open, fair and honest elections" -- frequently cites the figure of 375 cases of voter impersonation fraud.

But News21, a national investigative reporting project funded by the Carnegie-Knight Initiative, investigated each of those cases and found that not one showed evidence of impersonation fraud. News21 reporters also reached out to election personnel in all 50 states, requesting information on every single reported case of alleged fraud at the polls. The organization's analysis of 2,068 cases found only 10 related to impersonation. Using those figures, the frequency of poll impersonation is about one in 15 million.

Although the News21 study doesn't reveal evidence of impersonation in voting booths, it does show that other types of voter fraud -- especially in voter registration and manipulating absentee ballots -- are alive and well. The data contain 400 cases of registration fraud and 491 cases of alleged absentee ballot abuse.

If legislators in Texas, Pennsylvania or the seven other states with similar laws on the books genuinely cared about combating voter fraud, they'd do well to police the areas where there still is evidence of scamming. Any legislation against "voter fraud" should attack fraud, not voters.

For more, see The Truth About Voter Fraud by Editorial Board, August 13, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Education: Investing in Teachers

For more, see The 11 Graphs That Allegedly Prove That the West Is Doomed by Derek Thompson, August 7, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Economics: Leverage, Debt, and Entitlement

We must overcome the many years during which policymakers lost sight of sustainable drivers of growth and jobs and instead ended up relying on excessive leverage, over-indebtedness and an absurd sense of credit entitlement.)

For more, see Paul Ryan's Plan and the Next 'New Normal' by Mohamed a. EL-Erian, August 13, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Economics: Fannie Mae Posts $2.2B Net Gain for Q2

Fannie Mae earned $2.2 billion from April through June, its second quarterly gain in net income since being taken over by the government during the 2008 financial crisis.

Fannie and smaller sibling Freddie Mac were taken over by the government after massive losses on risky mortgages threatened to topple them.

Fannie has received about $116 billion so far from the Treasury Department, the most expensive bailout of a single company. So far Fannie has repaid about $26 billion of that bailout.

Taxpayers have spent about $170 billion to rescue Fannie and Freddie. It could cost roughly $260 billion more to support the companies through 2014 after subtracting dividend payments, according to the government.

Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee about half of all U.S. mortgages, or nearly 31 million home loans, which are worth more than $5 trillion. Along with several federal agencies, they backed nearly 90% of new mortgages over the past year.

Fannie and Freddie buy home loans from banks and other lenders, package them into bonds with a guarantee against default, and then sell them to investors around the world.

For more, see Fannie Mae Posts $2.2B Net Gain for Q2 by The Associated Press, August 8, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Taxes: No One Pays the Estate Tax

For more, see No One Pays the Estate Tax by Dylan Matthews, July 26, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Healthcare: Health Care in Israel

Romney's point about Israel's success in controlling health care costs is spot on: Its health care system has seen health care costs grow much slower than other industrialized nations.

How it has gotten there, however, may not be to the Republican candidate's liking: Israel regulates its health care system aggressively, requiring all residents to carry insurance and capping revenue for various parts of the country's health care system.

Israel created a national health care system in 1995, largely funded through payroll and general tax revenue. The government provides all citizens with health insurance: They get to pick from one of four competing, nonprofit plans. Those insurance plans have to accept all customers--including people with pre-existing conditions--and provide residents with a broad set of government-mandated benefits.

For more, see Romney Praises Health Care in Israel, Where Research Says 'Strong Government Influence' Has Driven down Costs by Sarah Kliff, July 30, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Healthcare: A Quarter of Americans Expect to Pay Individual Mandate Tax

The Urban Institute gamed out the numbers and estimates about 6% of the population -- 18.2 million people -- "will be required to purchase coverage or pay a penalty."

For more, see A Quarter of Americans Expect to Pay Individual Mandate Tax by Sarah Kliff, July 31, 2012 at Wonkblog.

International: Israel

The three U.S. statesmen who have done the most to make Israel more secure and accepted in the region all told blunt truths to every Israeli or Arab leader: Jimmy Carter, who helped forge a lasting peace between Israel and Egypt; Henry Kissinger, who built the post-1973 war disengagement agreements with Syria, Israel and Egypt; and James Baker, who engineered the Madrid peace conference. All of them knew that to make progress in this region you have to get in the face of both sides. They both need the excuse at times that "the Americans made me do it," because their own politics are too knotted to move on their own.

On what matters to Israel's survival -- advanced weaponry and intelligence -- Defense Minister Ehud Barak told CNN on Monday, "I should tell you honestly that this administration under President Obama is doing in regard to our security more than anything that I can remember in the past."

For more, see Why Not in Vegas? by Thomas L. Friedman, July 31, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Economics: Wages Aren't Stagnating, They're Plummeting

Median wages of all US workers:

When you take all men, not just those working fulltime, into account, the slight decline in the above graph becomes a plummet of 28% in median real wages from 1969 to 2009.

For more, see Wages Aren't Stagnating, They're Plummeting by Dylan Matthews, July 31, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Education: For-Profit Colleges Serve Shareholders over Students

... for-profit colleges have failed to support [their] students, the report states, by prizing recruitment over retention. The colleges studied spent 23% of their revenue on marketing and recruiting, the report found, and 17% on instruction.

The publicly traded companies that operate for-profit colleges yielded an average profit margin of 20% in 2009 and paid an average $7.3 million to their chief executives, the report found.

The companies are successful largely because they charge high tuition. Associate-degree programs at for-profit colleges cost at least four times as much as comparable programs at public community colleges, $34,988 vs. $8,313, the report found.

As of 2010, the for-profit colleges studied employed 35,202 student recruiters, far more than the staff charged with supporting the students who had already enrolled.

Recruiters were trained to make a hard sell on potential students, the report found, pushing "on the pain in students' lives" and creating "a false sense of urgency to enroll" as a path to a better life.

For-profit colleges have grown dramatically over the past decade and now consume one-quarter of all federal student aid; for-profit students represent about half of all federal student-loan defaults.

For more, see Report Finds For-Profit Colleges Serve Shareholders over Students by Daniel de Vise, July 29, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Education: Does Teacher Merit Pay Work? Yes.

The authors went into nine K-8 schools in Chicago Heights, a city 30 miles south of Chicago, and randomly selected teachers (who had to consent, which 93.75% did) to take part in a merit pay scheme. The students affected were overwhelmingly low-income, with 98% receiving free or subsidized lunches. Teachers in the experiment were offered $80 per percentile improvement in student test scores, for a maximum reward of $8,000, compared to a typical teacher salary of $50,000.

The authors split teachers in the study into a control group, who were not offered any rewards, a "gain" group, which was promised rewards of up to $8,000 at the end of the school year, and a "loss" group, which was given $4,000 upfront and asked to pay back any rewards they did not earn. The idea behind the latter group was that loss aversion should motivate teachers to perform better than they would if they only stood to gain more money. Additionally, the gain and loss groups were split, with a "team" group being rewarded on the basis of theirs and fellow teachers' test scores, and the "individual" group being reward only on the basis of their own scores. The conclusion: it worked, and it worked almost twice as well when the money was given at the start and then taken away:

For more, see Does Teacher Merit Pay Work? A New Study Says Yes. by Dylan Matthews, July 23, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Politics: The Disclose Act Won't Fix Campaign Finance

... only 0.26% of Americans give more than $200 to congressional campaigns.

0.000063% of Americans —- fewer than 200 of the country's 310 million residents —- have contributed 80% of all super-PAC donations.

Last week, Senate Democrats took another run at blunting the influence of Citizens United, the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that permits unlimited contributions to independent political committees. The lawmakers voted for the Disclose Act, which would have required groups making more than $10,000 in campaign- related expenditures to disclose contributors who had donated more than $10,000. No longer would information about election spending be limited to, "This ad paid for by Americans United for a More American America."

They failed. Senate Republicans successfully filibustered the legislation. But even if the Democrats had succeeded, the Disclose Act would not have gone nearly far enough.

The power of super-PACs is not restricted to their ability to buy airtime for television ads. That's what attracts all the news coverage, but the more insidious function of super-PACs may be influencing legislation before a single dollar is spent —- by threatening to buy future airtime.

Imagine the oil industry wants a small, technical change in a law setting environmental standards. It's an issue few voters are following, or will even hear about. But it's worth billions of dollars to the industry. So oil companies establish a super- PAC and send lobbyists to every congressional office with a simple message: Legislators who support the change will receive a donation, and each legislator who votes against it will be subject to $1 million in super-PAC attack ads in their district in the last week of the campaign.

The real culprit is arguably the 1976 case Buckley v. Valeo, in which the Supreme Court held that political money is tantamount to political speech. As a result, Congress can't limit spending by campaigns. Citizens United and related court decisions made it harder to regulate spending by outside groups, which further eroded the legitimacy of the system. It is all but impossible to break politicians' dependence on big funders so long as their opponents can benefit from moneyed interests spending unlimited amounts of cash on an election.

For more, see The Disclose Act Won't Fix Campaign Finance by Ezra Klein, July 27, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Security: Why Killing Is a Profitable Enterprise

The NRA not only dependably opposes limits on assault-rifle sales but even opposes reporting bulk sales of assault rifles. Last year, the NRA went to the mat to prevent anyone from cross-checking the names of those on the terrorist watch list against the names of those buying guns. These two actions clarify beyond argument that the safety and welfare of you and yours have simply dropped from the NRA's list of priorities. The NRA represents gun manufacturers, end of story.

For more, see Why Killing Is a Profitable Enterprise by Michael F. Mcnulty, July 27, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Security: Gun Control Group Gives Obama an 'F'

In 2010 ...

President Barack Obama on Monday received a failing grade from the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence for running away from gun control.

The group, which endorsed Obama in 2008, gave him an "F" on every issue it scored, including background checks, gun trafficking, guns in public, the federal assault weapons ban, standing up to the gun lobby and leadership.

... the Brady Campaign, a leading advocacy group for stricter gun laws, said Obama actually has done little to clamp down on firearms since being elected. Instead, the president has signed into law two bills that favored gun-rights supporters.

For more, see Gun Control Group Gives Obama an 'F' by Michael O'brien, January 19, 2010 at The Hill.

Mind: The 11 Ways That Consumers Are Hopeless at Math

A good description is at The 11 Ways That Consumers Are Hopeless at Math by Derek Thompson, July 6, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Well-Being: National Vacation Policies

For more, see The Only Advanced Country Without a National Vacation Policy? It's the U.S. by Derek Thompson, July 2, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Health: Software Emulates Lifespan of Entire Organism

Wow.

Scientists at Stanford University and the J. Craig Venter Institute have developed the first software simulation of an entire organism, a humble single-cell bacterium that lives in the human genital and respiratory tracts.

The scientists and other experts said the work was a giant step toward developing computerized laboratories that could carry out many thousands of experiments much faster than is possible now, helping scientists penetrate the mysteries of diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.

For more, see In First, Software Emulates Lifespan of Entire Organism by John Markoff, July 20, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Politics: How Super Pacs Are Saving Mitt Romney

Republican-aligned super PACs and other outside conservative groups have spent more than $144 million on general election ads in swing presidential states, a huge outlay of cash that has allowed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney to not only combat but exceed heavy early ad spending by President Obama.

Taken together, the Romney campaign and the panoply of Republican outside groups have spent $179 million on swing state advertising so far in the general election, while Obama and his aligned outside groups have shelled out $128 million.

For more, see How Super Pacs Are Saving Mitt Romney by Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake, July 24, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Well-Being: Does More Money Really Bring Happiness?

Americans anticipated they would feel twice as happy if their salaries more than doubled. But when researchers polled participants at two different income levels, they found that people making more than twice as much were only 9% happier than those making the original amount.

The "price of happiness" has made news before—-it's how much people need to make per year to feel happy and fulfilled. According to a recent Marist poll, that magic number falls somewhere between $50,000 and $75,000.

Respondents to the poll who made more than $50,000 were more satisfied with their lives when it came to factors ranging from friends, to health, to how they spent their time. More than general lifts in salary (like getting a raise from $35,000 to $40,000, or even $60,000 to $65,000), that specific number was the happiness tipping point: "$50,000 is the mark where you start to see significant differences," researcher Susan McCulloch told LearnVest.

For more, see Does More Money Really Bring Happiness?, July 19, 2012 at Fox Business.

Economics: The Amazing Global Optimism Gap: 1 More Way China Is Totally Weird

In the United States, 68% respondents reported a good personal economic situation versus but 31% reported a good national economic situation. Our 37% gap isn't even the biggest in the English speaking world: Only 15% of British people are optimistic about their economy, four times worse than the 64% that consider their personal finances strong.

Here is the world's optimism gap. Only in China and Egypt are people more optimistic about the country than their personal situation.

For more, see The Amazing Global Optimism Gap: 1 More Way China Is Totally Weird by Derek Thompson, July 12, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Mind: Why Do You Get Tired After Taking a Test?

Although the average adult human brain weighs about 1.4 kilograms, only 2% of total body weight, it demands 20% of our resting metabolic rate (RMR)

For more, see Why Do You Get Tired After Taking a Test? by Veronique Greenwood, July 18, 2012 at 80beats.

Health: The Laziest Countries in the World

Countries in darker colors had greater recorded inactivity, defined as failing to reach 30 minutes of moderate activity a day.

For more, see A Graph of the Laziest Countries in the World (Hooray! We're Not #1) by Derek Thompson, July 18, 2012 at The Atlantic.

International: Foreign Policy is Where Obama Shines

It won't help him win many votes this year, but it should be noted that Barack Obama has been a good foreign policy president. He, Vice President Joseph Biden, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the rest of his team have created a style of policy making that is flexible, incremental and well adapted to the specific circumstances of this moment. Following a foreign policy hedgehog, Obama's been a pretty effective fox.

For much more, see Where Obama Shines by David Brooks, July 19, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Healthcare: Medicaid Patients Aren't Using the Emergency Department for Routine Care

Policymakers frequently point to Medicaid patients high use of the emergency room for routine care as one factor driving up health-care costs.

There's just one problem with that claim: A new study finds it's not true.

The majority of Medicaid visits to the emergency room are for urgent or serious issues, according to research published Wednesday by the Center for Studying Health System Change.

Both those covered by Medicaid and those on private insurance use the emergency department at the same rate for both emergency and non-urgent care.

For more, see Study: Medicaid Patients Aren't Using the Emergency Department for Routine Care by Sarah Kliff, July 11, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Mind: What's the Temperature Today? Your Answer Depends on Your Political Beliefs

Researchers looked at three years of surveys on the weather, divided them up by zip code, and compared residents' answers to the actual weather in each area. It turned out that people correctly observed trends in weather events, such as floods and droughts. But on average, their perceptions of temperature trends had nothing to do with the actual climate. Instead, the best predictor of people's answers was cultural affiliation.

Strong individualists, whose dislike of rules makes them opposed to environmental regulations, believed that temperatures were the same, while egalitarians, who prioritize their group identities, were more likely to state that temperatures had increased. Because we have incorporated belief in climate change into our political and cultural identities—-and temperature is strongly associated with global warming—-the need to maintain our identities skews our perception of reality.

For more, see What's the Temperature Today? Your Answer Depends on Your Political Beliefs by Sophie Bushwick, July 21, 2012 at 80beats.

Politics: Romney Trails on Most Issues

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For more, see Obama Holds Lead; Romney Trails on Most Issues, July 12, 2012 at Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Diversion: xkcd's Visual Field

From Visual Field by Randall Munroe, July 12, 2012 at XKCD.com.

Taxes: Some of the Largest Tax Increases

For more, see No, 'Obamacare' Isn't 'The Largest Tax Increase in the History of the World' (in One Chart) by Ezra Klein, July 2, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Healthcare: Will Medicaid Expansion Costs Break States' Backs?

What would happen to state budgets if all states went ahead with the Medicaid expansion? The Congressional Budget Office says that it would increase state spending on the program by $73 billion by 2022—-the equivalent of a "2.8% increase in what states would have spent on Medicaid from 2014 to 2022 in the absence of health reform," the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities explained.

For more, see GOP Governors Say Medicaid Costs Are Already Breaking States' Backs. Are They Right? by Suzy Khimm, July 3, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Taxes: States Face Tough Choices Even as Downturn Ends

... the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a nonprofit research organization in Washington associated with Citizens for Tax Justice, which advocates a more progressive tax code, issued a report this year that found that the states with high income tax rates had outperformed those with no income tax over the past decade when it came to economic growth per capita and median family income.

For more, see States Face Tough Choices Even as Downturn Ends by Michael Cooper, July 10, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Government: State to State Federal Money Transfers

E.g., the reddest states receive much more from the Feds than they give ...

For more, see The Dollar Union: Could We Boot Alabama? Should New York Secede? by Derek Thompson, June 25, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Mind: Intrade's Weaknesses

About Intrade which is a website which allows members to trade futures (bet) on the outcomes of events ...

But the [Intrade] crowd was not everywhere wise. For one thing, many of the betting pools on Intrade and Betfair attract relatively few traders, in part because using them legally is cumbersome. (No, I do not know from experience.) The thinness of these markets can cause them to adjust too slowly to new information.

And there is this: If the circle of people who possess information is small enough —- as with the selection of a vice president or pope or, arguably, a decision by the Supreme Court —- the crowds may not have much wisdom to impart. "There is a class of markets that I think are basically pointless," says Justin Wolfers, .... "There is no widely available public information."

For more, see When the Crowd Isn't Wise by David Leonhardt, July 7, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Technology: Apple's Revenue by Product

For more, see No, the iPhone Isn't the Most Disruptive Product in History by Derek Thompson, June 30, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Healthcare: The Backlash Begins: States Start Opting Out of Medicaid Expansion

Florida will reject healthcare coverage of a million of it's poorest citizens even though it is free for the first three years and eventually costs only $2,000 each if Rick Scott's number is right.

"Florida will opt out of spending approximately $1.9 billion more taxpayer dollars required to implement a massive entitlement expansion of the Medicaid program," Florida Gov. Rick Scott's office said in a Sunday evening statement.

The Affordable Care Act would have extended Medicaid to cover everyone who earns less than $14,500, regardless of whether they have children or not. That expansion, to cover higher earners, would have covered 951,622 Floridians, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation report.

For more, see The Backlash Begins: States Start Opting Out of Medicaid Expansion by Sarah Kliff, July 2, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Society: The Old and Uneducated Watch the Most TV

For more, see The Old and Uneducated Watch the Most TV by Catherine Rampell, June 26, 2012 at Economix.

Mind: The Right Way to Bribe Kids

In this study, economists offered students of different ages money or trophies just before they took a test. Sometimes, the students got the reward first with the possibility that it could be revoked for bad performance. Sometimes, the students were only shown the reward after. So what did the economists find? Four really cool things.

First, they found that money works, and the amount of money really matters. Students were reportedly willing to exert significantly more energy at $80-an-hour, but not at $40-an-hour. (Authors: "As far as we know, ours is the first study to demonstrate that student responsiveness to incentives is sensitive to the size of the reward.").

Second, they learned that the rewards were most powerful when they were framed as losses rather than gains (i.e.: "Here is $20. If you fail, I'm taking it away.") The technical term for this is loss aversion and it's endemic. We're more protective of money we have -- or think we have -- than we are aggressive about seeking money we don't have.

Third, they learned that "non-financial incentives," like trophies, worked best with young people.

Fourth, they learned that rewards provided with a delay -- "we'll get you that check in a month!" -- did very little to improve performance. The power of hyperbolic discounting is strong with these ones.

For more, see Freakonomics Goes to School and Teaches Us the Right Way to Bribe Kids by Derek Thompson, June 19, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Healthcare: Six Charts to Explain Health-Care Polling

For more, see Six Charts to Explain Health-Care Polling by Scott Clement, June 28, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Education: Texas Republican Party Calls for Abstinence Only Sex Ed, Corporal Punishment in Schools

Early this month, Texas Republican delegates met in Fort Worth to approve their 2012 platform, notable parts of which take aim at the state's education system.

The position causing the most controversy, however, is the statement that they oppose the teaching of "higher order thinking skills" -- a curriculum which strives to encourage critical thinking -- arguing that it might challenge "student's fixed beliefs" and undermine "parental authority."

For more, see Texas Republican Party Calls for Abstinence Only Sex Ed, Corporal Punishment in Schools by Laura Hibbard, June 27, 2012 at The Huffington Post.

From the platform itself ...

Knowledge-Based Education —- We oppose the teaching of Higher Order Thinking Skills (HOTS) (values clarification), critical thinking skills and similar programs that are simply a relabeling of Outcome-Based Education (OBE) (mastery learning) which focus on behavior modification and have the purpose of challenging the student's fixed beliefs and undermining parental authority.

Regulation: Barclays Fined for Manipulation of Libor

Barclays will pay $450 million to U.S. and British regulators to settle allegations that it rigged the interbank lending rate known as Libor, marking the first resolution in a sweeping investigation of the world's largest banks.

Libor, the London interbank offered rate, is a standard interest rate for loans between banks that serves as a benchmark for more than $360 trillion in lending to businesses and consumers.

The British bank admits to scheming to manipulate rates to increase profits and hide the reality of its distress during the financial crisis. Regulators suspect Barclays did not act alone, but was part of a larger conspiracy to set artificially low rates for Libor and the Euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor.

About a dozen financial institutions, including Bank of America, HSBC and JPMorgan, submit data to set the daily Libor rate. That information is collected on behalf of the British Bankers' Association by Thompson Reuters, which calculates the averages and devises the Libor rate.

Critics of the system say there is not enough transparency in how banks set their daily rates, which leaves the process wide open to fraud.

"This is an example of how letting the market regulate itself doesn't work," said attorney Brett Kappel of Arent Fox. "Given that the private sector has proven itself to be vulnerable to fraud, the next logical step would be to have the Libor rate determined by a government body."

For more, see Barclays Fined for Manipulation of Libor by Danielle Douglas, June 27, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Mind: Is IQ in the Genes? Twins Give Us Two Answers

For the rich and well-fed, genes cause most of the variance [in intelligence]. But for the poor, environment is key.

Today, a third of a century after the study began and with other studies of reunited twins having reached the same conclusion, the numbers are striking. Monozygotic twins raised apart are more similar in IQ (74%) than dizygotic (fraternal) twins raised together (60%) and much more than parent-children pairs (42%); half-siblings (31%); adoptive siblings (29%-34%); virtual twins, or similarly aged but unrelated children raised together (28%); adoptive parent-child pairs (19%) and cousins (15%). Nothing but genes can explain this hierarchy.

But as Drs. Bouchard and Segal have been at pains to point out from the start, this high heritability of intelligence mainly applies to nonpoor families. Raise a child hungry or diseased and environment does indeed affect IQ. Eric Turkheimer and others at the University of Virginia have shown that in the most disadvantaged families, heritability of IQ falls and the influence attributed to the shared family environment rises to 60%.

In other words, hygienic, well-fed life enables people to maximize their genetic potential so that the only variation left is innate. Intelligence becomes significantly more heritable when environmental hurdles to a child's development have been dismantled.

For more, see Is IQ in the Genes? Twins Give Us Two Answers, June 22, 2012 at WSJ.com.

Economics: The Great Abdication

Suddenly normally calm economists are talking about 1931, the year everything fell apart.

It started with a banking crisis in a small European country (Austria). Austria tried to step in with a bank rescue —- but the spiraling cost of the rescue put the government's own solvency in doubt. Austria's troubles shouldn't have been big enough to have large effects on the world economy, but in practice they created a panic that spread around the world. Sound familiar?

The really crucial lesson of 1931, however, was about the dangers of policy abdication. Stronger European governments could have helped Austria manage its problems. Central banks, notably the Bank of France and the Federal Reserve, could have done much more to limit the damage. But nobody with the power to contain the crisis stepped up to the plate; everyone who could and should have acted declared that it was someone else's responsibility.

And it's happening again, both in Europe and in America.

For more, see The Great Abdication by Paul Krugman, June 24, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Technology: Kindle Fire or iPad

... about 54% of Kindle Fire owners said they're satisfied with their purchase, according to a recent survey by ChangeWave Research, compared to 74% of iPad owners.

From 10 Things Amazon Won't Tell You by Quentin Fottrell, June 24, 2012 at SmartMoney.com.

Govenment: Members of Congress Trade in Companies While Making Laws That Affect Those Same Firms

One-hundred-thirty members of Congress or their families have traded stocks collectively worth hundreds of millions of dollars in companies lobbying on bills that came before their committees, a practice that is permitted under current ethics rules, a Washington Post analysis has found.

Almost one in every eight trades —- 5,531 —- intersected with legislation. The 130 lawmakers traded stocks or bonds in companies as bills passed through their committees or while Congress was still considering the legislation. The party affiliation of the lawmakers was almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, 68 to 62.

Congress forbids top administration officials, for instance, from trading stocks in industries they oversee and can influence. The lawmakers, by contrast, can still invest in firms even as they create laws that can affect the bottom line of the companies.

For more, see Members of Congress Trade in Companies While Making Laws That Affect Those Same Firms by Dan Keating, David S. Fallis, Kimberly Kindy and Scott Higham, June 23, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Media: Chris Hayes Has Arrived with 'Up'

For an entertaining, informing discussion of the current issues with a liberal slant ...

Word of "Up w/Chris Hayes" has spread beyond a few hundred punk fans. In less than a year on television (and with a chirpy voice, a weakness for gesticulation and a tendency to drop honors-thesis words like "signifier" into casual conversation), Mr. Hayes has established himself as Generation Y's wonk prince of the morning political talk-show circuit.

"Up" comes off as a rebuke to traditional cable shout-fests like CNN's late "Crossfire." Thanks to its early weekend time slot, the program has the freedom to unwind over two hours each Saturday and Sunday. Guests are encouraged to go deep into the issues of the week, and not try to score cheap-shot points to win the debate.

It is a point that Mr. Hayes hammered home at 7:15 a.m. on a recent Saturday, when he strode into the green room off Studio 3A at 30 Rockefeller Center to fill in two guests, both college professors, on the ground rules.

"The first and foremost important rule of the show: we're not on television —- no talking points, no sound bites," he said, his hair still a bed-head tangle and his suit collar askew. "We have a lot of time for actual conversation. So actually listen, actually respond."

An hour later, as the cameras rolled, Mr. Hayes and his guests waded thigh-deep into an analysis of private equity and whether it is bad for the economy. At a table of wonks, Mr. Hayes, who studied the philosophy of mathematics at Brown, came off as the wonkiest as he deconstructed the budgetary implications of tax arbitrage. Opinions were varied and passionate, but there was no sniping, no partisan grandstanding.

For more, see Chris Hayes Has Arrived with 'Up' by Alex Williams, June 22, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Europe: In Former East Germany, Anxious Residents Resent Paying for Europe's Problems

Germany may be Europe's most powerful economy. But its prosperity is so uneven that Poles just across the border see it differently: as a place where housing is a bargain.

With unemployment higher in Loecknitz than anywhere else in Germany, a big house on a generous parcel of land runs just $90,000, real estate agents say. That is the cost of a one-bedroom apartment in nearby Szczecin, a burgeoning Polish city of 400,000 a half-hour away.

In the past, "it was always a one-way road," with Germans moving to Poland because of the difference in prices, said Krzysztof Wojciechowski, a professor at the European University Viadrina in Frankfurt an der Oder, a city that abuts Poland. Now, he said, the situation is reversed.

Anxiety in Germany's poorer areas is part of the reason the country has been reluctant to contribute more toward European rescue programs. Many Germans in this region say the notion that they should give over more money to pay away Europe's problems misjudges their own situation. And although the more urgent problems facing countries such as Greece and Spain have prompted other European leaders to call for greater German assistance, opinion polls show that most Germans approve of Merkel's unwillingness to dip deeper into her country's treasury.

Even now, many Germans see reunification as no more than a mixed success —- a tremendously expensive undertaking that brought prosperity to a few cities but left the countryside and smaller towns such as Loecknitz depopulated and economically depressed.

For more, see In Former East Germany, Anxious Residents Resent Paying for Europe's Problems by Michael Birnbaum, June 21, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Poll: Putting China's Economic Power in Perspective

... as you can see, it's primarily the developed world that views China as the greater juggernaut. Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Greece and the Czech Republic are among the countries whose populations are more likely to say China's economic power has eclipsed America's.

Now look at the developing world. In most of these countries —- Turkey, Tunisia, Pakistan, India, Brazil and Mexico —- respondents were significantly more likely to rate the United States as more economically powerful than China.

The gross domestic product per capita in China was $8,400 in 2011; in the United States, it was nearly six times that, at $48,100.

For more, see Putting China's Economic Power in Perspective by Catherine Rampell, June 15, 2012 at Economix.

Healthcare: Distaste for Health Care Law Reflects Spending on Ads

National polls have consistently found the health care law has far more enemies than friends, ....

In all, about $235 million has been spent on ads attacking the law since its passage in March 2010, according to a recent survey by Kantar Media's Campaign Media Analysis Group. Only $69 million has been spent on advertising supporting it.

For more, see Distaste for Health Care Law Reflects Spending on Ads by Abby Goodnough, June 20, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Well-Being: Stress During Recession Hits One Group Particularly Hard

Using surveys from 1983, 2006 and 2009, the research from Carnegie Mellon University's Sheldon Cohen and Denise Janicki-Deverts found a 10 to 30% increase in stress levels among all demographic categories over the past quarter-century.

For more, see Stress During Recession Hits One Group Particularly Hard by Chad Brooks, June 14, 2012 at LiveScience.

Society: The New Face of American Entrepreneurs

Nearly one in five (18%) small business owner in the U.S. was born in another country, a new study released today (June 14) shows. By contrast, immigrants make up 13% of the population and 16% of the labor force.

For more, see The New Face of American Entrepreneurs by Ned Smith, June 14, 2012 at LiveScience.

Technology: Gadget Popularity Over Time

For more, see What Happened to the Microsoft Monopoly? by Casey B. Mulligan, June 20, 2012 at Economix.

Health: Want to Live Longer? Move to NYC

While life expectancy in many parts of the United States is dropping, it has increased by 10 years in Manhattan since 1987. Researchers largely attribute that rise —- the fastest in the nation —- to a crackdown by the New York City health department on unhealthy behaviors.

The health department has, for example, banned trans fats, prohibited smoking in public spaces and hiked taxes on cigarettes. It has also rolled out hundreds of miles of new bicycle lanes, mandated the use of calorie labels on menus in chain restaurants and plastered posters up in subways with information about the risks of obesity and the benefits of preventive health services.

At the moment the city is considering a partial ban on large servings of sugar-sweetened drinks, which would go into effect next year.

For more, see Want to Live Longer? Move to NYC by Natalie Wolchover, June 14, 2012 at LiveScience.

Polls: Partisan Polarization Surges in Bush, Obama Years

Republicans and Democrats disagree more and more ...

But other groupings of people have not ...

Where Republicans have changed the most (the top line is Democrats, the bottom Republicans, and the middle independents) ...

Where Democrats have changed the most ...

Where both have changed the most ...

Is it just that the political propagandists have gotten very good at their jobs? Or an effect of the Great Recession? Or what?

For much more, see Partisan Polarization Surges in Bush, Obama Years, June 4, 2012 at Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Health: Ewww ... 100 Trillion Bacteria

"The gut is not jam-packed with food; it is jam-packed with microbes," Dr. Proctor said. "Half of your stool is not leftover food. It is microbial biomass." But bacteria multiply so quickly that they replenish their numbers as fast as they are excreted.

For more, see In Good Health? Thank Your 100 Trillion Bacteria by Gina Kolata, June 13, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Security: African Militant Groups

From The African Network by Craig Whitlock and Laris Karklis, June 13, 2012 at The Washington Post.

Investing: More Fraud at Companies of Ostentatiously Wealthy CEOs

CEOs with a taste for luxury goods—- expensive cars, boats, and houses—-aren't more likely to commit fraud, researchers found. But fraud is more likely to happen in the companies that they run, ....

Big-spender CEOs also tend to run companies that take bigger risks, but have poorer performance and are more likely to go bankrupt.

For more, see Study: Companies Run by Ostentatiously Wealthy CEOs More Likely to Perpetrate Fraud by Suzy Khimm, June 10, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Taxes: The Five Largest Individual Tax Expenditures, 2014

For more, see Baucus's Not-So-Simple Plan to Simplify the Tax Code by Suzy Khimm, June 11, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Healthcare: Can Shopping for Insurance Be Easy?

Every year, branding firm Seigel + Gale ranks industries by "brand simplicity," a measure of how easily consumers understand the product being sold. Every year, health insurance comes in at the very bottom.

For more, see A 14-Month Effort to Answer One Question: Can Shopping for Insurance Be Easy? by Sarah Kliff, June 12, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Poll: The Supreme Court and the Health Care Law

For more, see New Poll: The Supreme Court and the Health Care Law by Adam Liptak and Allison Kopicki, June 7, 2012 at New York Times.

Crime: Method to Track Firearm Use Is Stalled by Foes

Identifying the firearm used in a crime is one of the biggest challenges for criminal investigators. But what if a shell casing picked up at a murder scene could immediately be tracked to the gun that fired it?

A technique that uses laser technology and stamps a numeric code on shell casings can do just that. But the technology, called microstamping, has been swept up in the larger national debate over gun laws and Second Amendment rights, and efforts to require gun makers to use it have stalled across the nation.

For more, see Method to Track Firearm Use Is Stalled by Foes by Erica Goode, June 12, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Mind: "Thinking Young" Can Beat Dementia

We're amazingly suggestive ...

People who are encouraged to feel old are five times more likely to be diagnosed with dementia than those in the same age group with a positive outlook on their longevity, British scientists said Tuesday.

University of Exeter researchers came to the conclusion after studying two groups of participants aged between 60 and 70 who had been primed to feel either older or younger before their cognitive ability was tested.

One set of volunteers was told they were being placed in an age bracket for 40- to 70-year-olds, while those in the "younger" group were told they were among participants aged between 60 and 90 years.

The participants were then given reading materials that focused on the negative effects of aging on memory loss or cognitive ability, and were quizzed on what they had read.

Results showed that 70% of participants in the "older" age group met the criterion for dementia, while just 14% of those who had been encouraged to see themselves as "younger" were given the diagnosis.

For more, see "Thinking Young" Can Beat Dementia, Study Suggests, June 12, 2012 at Fox News.

Politics: Political Spending: Bad for the Bottom Line?

Researchers looked at the relationship between corporate political giving and financial returns for 943 companies between 1998 and 2008, and discovered that companies' political investments "are negatively associated with market performance."

What's more, the revolving door between government and business doesn't seem to help their performance either. "Firms placing former public officials on their boards experienced inferior market performance and similar accounting performance than firms without such board members," a press statement on the study explains.

Why doesn't political giving pay? Researchers have a couple of explanations: executives who support political giving might generally make overly risky business decisions, and personal ideological beliefs can trump business pragmatism when it comes to giving as well.

That said, there is one exception to their findings: for companies in highly regulated industries, there is a link between political giving and company performance.

For more, see Political Spending: Bad for the Bottom Line? by Suzy Khimm, June 12, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Economics: Who Killed American Unions?

And ...

For more, see Who Killed American Unions? by Derek Thompson, June 7, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Healthcare: That CT Scan Costs How Much?

If gas stations worked like health care, you wouldn't find out until the pump switched off whether you paid $3 or $30 a gallon. If clothes shopping worked like health care, you might pay $80 for a pair of jeans at your local boutique and $400 for the identical pair at the nearest department store—-and the clothes wouldn't have price tags on them.

"Why can't you or I as a consumer ask what it's going to cost and be met with something other than a blank stare?" asks Will Fox, a principal with Milliman, a national health actuarial consulting firm. The answer, he says, is that neither providers nor health insurers really want consumers to have that information.

Here's why: The contracted prices that health plans negotiate with providers in their networks have little or nothing to do with the actual quality of services provided and everything to do with the relative bargaining power of the providers.

For more, see That CT Scan Costs How Much?, July, 2012 at Consumer Reports.

Well-Being: Life Satisfaction And Income

For more, see The 10 Things Economics Can Tell Us About Happiness by Derek Thompson, May 31, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Europe: Why Does the Laziest Country in Europe Work the Most?

... the OECD's richest, most productive, most hardworking countries have some of the shortest working hours. The bottom five, according to the OECD, are Denmark, France, Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands. All are richer per capita than Greece. All are technically "lazier" if you go by hours worked.

By hours worked ...

For more, see Why Does the Laziest Country in Europe Work the Most? by Derek Thompson, May 29, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Diversion: This Tiny Sphere Is All the World's Water

If you gathered all the world's water--from oceans, lakes, groundwater, water vapor, everything--into a sphere, it would have a diameter of 860 miles.

For more, see This Tiny Sphere Is All the World's Water by Veronique Greenwood, May 14, 2012 at 80beats.

Diversion: Calvin and Sleeping Hobbes

From Calvin and Hobbes by Bill Watterson, April 14, 2012 at GoComics.

Economics: China Is a Huge Chunk of Global Growth — But for How Long?

Growth of GDP in billions by region ...

For more, see China Is a Huge Chunk of Global Growth — But for How Long? by Brad Plumer, May 31, 2012 at Wonkblog.

Healthcare: The Fork in the Road for Health Care

For more, see The Fork in the Road for Health Care by UWE E. Reinhardt, May 25, 2012 at Economix.

Diversion: The Wreck of the Titan Predicted the Wreck of the Titanic

A comparison of Futility, 1898 novella, and the actual sinking of the Titanic 14 years later ....

Although the novel was written before the Olympic-class Titanic had even been designed, there are some remarkable similarities between the fictional and real-life counterparts. Like the Titanic, the fictional ship sank in April in the North Atlantic, and there were not enough lifeboats for the passengers. There are also similarities between the size (800 ft long for Titan versus 882 ft 9 in long for the Titanic), speed (25 knots for Titan, 22.5 knots for Titanic) and life-saving equipment.

Beyond the name, the similarities between the Titanic and the fictional Titan include:

• Both were triple screw (propeller)
• Described as "unsinkable"
  • The Titanic was the world's largest luxury liner (882 feet, displacing 63,000 long tons), and was once described as being practically "unsinkable".
  • The Titan was the largest craft afloat and the greatest of the works of men (800 feet, displacing 75,000 tons, up from 45,000 in the 1898 edition), and was considered "unsinkable".
• Shortage of lifeboats
  • The Titanic carried only 16 lifeboats, plus 4 Engelhardt folding lifeboats, less than half the number required for her passenger and crew capacity of 3000.
  • The Titan carried "as few as the law allowed", 24 lifeboats, less than half needed for her 3000 capacity.
• Struck an iceberg
  • Moving at 22½ knots, the Titanic struck an iceberg on the starboard side on the night of April 14, 1912 in the North Atlantic 400 miles away from Newfoundland.
  • Also on an April night, in the North Atlantic 400 miles from Newfoundland (Terranova), the Titan hit an iceberg while traveling at 25 knots, also on the starboard side.
• Sinking
  • The unsinkable Titanic sank, and more than half of her 2200 passengers and crew died.
  • The indestructible Titan also sank, more than half of her 2500 passengers drowning.
  • Went down bow first, the Titan actually capsizing before it sank.

For more, see Futility, or the Wreck of the Titan, on May 26, 2012 at Wikipedia.

Government: Florida's Open Government Practices

Here's Florida's latest transparency coup: Gov. Rick Scott has made his top aides' email accounts available on the Internet for all to see. The public can go online and peek into inbox and sent email folders at any time: no public record requests, no long waits, no government lawyers trying to scrub everything clean.

For more, see Thomas Peele: Florida's Open Government Practices Put California to Shame by Thomas Peele, May 26, 2012 at Contra Costa Times.

Economics: 1950s thru 1970s

Once upon a time, this fairy tale tells us, America was a land of lazy managers and slacker workers. Productivity languished, and American industry was fading away in the face of foreign competition.

Then square-jawed, tough-minded buyout kings like Mitt Romney and the fictional Gordon Gekko came to the rescue, imposing financial and work discipline. Sure, some people didn't like it, and, sure, they made a lot of money for themselves along the way. But the result was a great economic revival, whose benefits trickled down to everyone.

You can see why Wall Street likes this story. But none of it -- except the bit about the Gekkos and the Romneys making lots of money -- is true.

For the alleged productivity surge never actually happened. In fact, overall business productivity in America grew faster in the postwar generation, an era in which banks were tightly regulated and private equity barely existed, than it has since our political system decided that greed was good.

What about international competition? We now think of America as a nation doomed to perpetual trade deficits, but it was not always thus. From the 1950s through the 1970s, we generally had more or less balanced trade, exporting about as much as we imported. The big trade deficits only started in the Reagan years, that is, during the era of runaway finance.

And what about that trickle-down? It never took place. There have been significant productivity gains these past three decades, although not on the scale that Wall Street's self-serving legend would have you believe. However, only a small part of those gains got passed on to American workers.

For more, see Egos and Immorality by Paul Krugman, May 24, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Europe: The Difference Between the U.S. And Europe in 1 Graph

The difference between the U.S. and Europe is that when the Greek economy "pulls a Mississippi" (or perhaps I should say, when Mississippi "pulls a Greece"), the EU and the U.S. have 180-degree opposite reactions. Over here, we calmly write checks to Mississippi in the form of Medicaid and unemployment insurance, no questions asked. Europe has no comparable "Peripheraid" for its weak peripheral states. Instead, it has chaos.

For more, see The Difference Between the U.S. And Europe in 1 Graph by Derek Thompson, May 8, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Government: Investing in Julia

From an interesting article how much the government should help individuals ...

Sure, we could move toward an every-man-for-himself economy. But private insurers typically have a financial incentive to exclude those most at risk. And choosing to invest only in your own human capital is a lot like choosing to invest all your resources in one small company.

For much more, see Investing in Julia by Nancy Folbre, May 21, 2012 at Economix.

Economics: How Change Happens

As Reihan Salam noted in a fair-minded review of the literature in National Review, in any industry there is an astonishing difference in the productivity levels of leading companies and the lagging companies. Private equity firms like Bain acquire bad companies and often replace management, compel executives to own more stock in their own company and reform company operations.

Most of the time they succeed. Research from around the world clearly confirms that companies that have been acquired by private equity firms are more productive than comparable firms.

This process involves a great deal of churn and creative destruction. It does not, on net, lead to fewer jobs. A giant study by economists from the University of Chicago, Harvard, the University of Maryland and the Census Bureau found that when private equity firms acquire a company, jobs are lost in old operations. Jobs are created in new, promising operations. The overall effect on employment is modest.

While American companies operate in radically different ways than they did 40 years ago, the sheltered, government-dominated sectors of the economy -- especially education, health care and the welfare state -- operate in astonishingly similar ways.

For more, see How Change Happens by David Brooks, May 21, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Economics: Federal Spending, Taxes, and Deficits Are Lower Today than When Obama Took Office

For more, see Federal Spending, Taxes, and Deficits Are Lower Today than When Obama Took Office by Derek Thompson, May 16, 2012 at The Atlantic.

Health: New Data on Harms of Prostate Cancer Screening

The recommendations, from the United States Preventive Services Task Force, offer the most detailed breakdown to date of the potential risks and benefits of the prostate specific antigen blood test, commonly known as the P.S.A. test. Most important, the task force found that, at best, one man in every 1,000 given the P.S.A. test may avoid death as a result of the screening, while another man for every 3,000 tested will die prematurely as a result of complications from prostate cancer treatment and dozens more will be seriously harmed.

Prostate biopsies can cause pain, infection and emotional distress, while a cancer diagnosis typically leads to surgery or radiation treatment that can render a man impotent or incontinent, or both. In rare cases, a man can die from complications of treatment. Although "watchful waiting" is an option for men with prostate cancer, the vast majority of patients who learn they have prostate cancer choose more aggressive treatment.

The task force found that up to 43 men per 1,000 tested will face serious harms. Thirty to 40 men will develop incontinence or erectile dysfunction, or both, as a result of treatment. Two more men will have a serious cardiovascular event, like a heart attack, due to treatment, and one man will develop a life-threatening blood clot in his legs or lungs.

Even so, the American Urological Association issued a statement saying the group was "outraged" by the task force decision to finalize the recommendations. The group said the findings did not adequately reflect the benefits of P.S.A. testing and that it was "inappropriate and irresponsible" to issue a blanket statement against the testing.

For more, see New Data on Harms of Prostate Cancer Screening by Tara Parker-Pope, May 21, 2012 at NYTimes.com.

Politics: What the Public Knows About the Political Parties

Republicans fare substantially better than Democrats on several questions in the survey, as is typically the case in surveys about political knowledge.

The partisan gaps in knowledge are at least partly a consequence of demographic differences. On average, Republicans are older and more affluent than either Democrats or independents, and both of these are associated with knowledge about the parties' positions and leaders.

For more, see What the Public Knows About the Political Parties, April 11, 2012 at Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Tax: Will Rich People Desert the U.S. If Their Taxes Are Raised?

According to the international tax lawyer, Andrew Mitchel, the number of Americans renouncing their citizenship rose to 1,781 in 2011 from 231 in 2008.

For more, see Will Rich People Desert the U.S. If Their Taxes Are Raised? by Bruce Bartlett, May 8, 2012 at Economix.

California: Republican Santa Barbara -- Sort'a

Santa Barbara's registered voters are more Republican and less Democratic than all of California's ...

Of [California's registered voters], 43.5% are registered Democrats, the same share as in 2008, while the segment of Republicans has continued to decline steadily, with GOP voters now just 30.3% of the electorate. By contrast, the number of independents not aligned with any party has kept growing, as so-called "decline to states" now measure more than one-fifth (21.3%) of voters statewide. The balance is registered with smaller parties.

Who votes in S.B.? Statewide trends are mirrored in Santa Barbara County, where the number of those registered (187,799) has increased only slightly, the percentage of Democrats (41.5) has remained steady, while Republicans have slipped to 32.2% and independents have grown to 21.2% of the electorate.

For more, see Political Arithmetic by Jerry Roberts, April 26, 2012 at Santa Barbara Independent.

Europe: What History Can Explain About Greek Crisis

Oh, dear!

If Greece makes it through the current political crisis and stays in the euro zone, one useful case study is Germany's reunification, which suggests that the adjustment could take decades, not years, and involve mass emigration, billions of euros more in fiscal transfers and the rise of fringe parties in Greece as well as in the countries that have to foot the bill.

Like the former East Germany, Greece suffers from a crippling competitiveness gap and is locked into the euro. East Germans were priced out of the labor market because the value of the Deutsche mark reflected Western, not Eastern, productivity levels. About 14,000 businesses were shut down and four million jobs lost in the first five years after formal reunification, in 1990. Unemployment eventually peaked at more than 20% in 2005.

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, in 1989, more than 2 million of the 16 million people living in the East have moved West. Long-term unemployment and wage depression bolstered xenophobic parties and the Left Party, which grew from the former East German Communist Party and hopes to reach the national government in 2013.

More than two decades later, living standards have converged, although they remain about 20% lower in the East with unemployment in the Eastern part at nearly twice the Western average.

And this was within one nation with the same language, perfect mobility and the fiscal transfers missing in the euro zone: German taxpayers financed more than €1.7 trillion, or about $2.17 trillion, at current exchange rates, with the "solidarity surcharge" to pay for modernizing the former East Germany.

But ...

... if it does not and Greece leaves the euro zone, the diplomat added, the cost could be even higher.

For more, see What History Can Explain About Greek Crisis by Katrin Bennhold, May 21, 2012 at NYTimes.com.