.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Mind: Money and Happiness

Dismal scientists who look at happiness often contend that, beyond a GDP per capita of just $15,000 (measured at purchasing-power parity), money does not buy happiness. Up to that point the correlation between the two is strong, but thereafter it falls away. If this is true then some heretical conclusions follow: rich America is no happier than poorer Brazil, so what is the point in people who live in rich countries working harder to get ever richer? Politicians should concentrate on maximising the mental health of their voters, rather than the size of their pay checks. But plot the data another way, on a logarithmic scale where each increment represents a 100% increase in income per head, and the relationship between wealth and happiness looks more robust.

From Money and Happiness, November 25, 2010 at The Economist.

Economics: Ireland & Iceland

The Irish story began with a genuine economic miracle. But eventually this gave way to a speculative frenzy driven by runaway banks and real estate developers, all in a cozy relationship with leading politicians. The frenzy was financed with huge borrowing on the part of Irish banks, largely from banks in other European nations.

Then the bubble burst, and those banks faced huge losses. You might have expected those who lent money to the banks to share in the losses. After all, they were consenting adults, and if they failed to understand the risks they were taking that was nobody's fault but their own. But, no, the Irish government stepped in to guarantee the banks' debt, turning private losses into public obligations.

... at this point Iceland seems, if anything, to be doing better than its near-namesake [Ireland]. Its economic slump was no deeper than Ireland's, its job losses were less severe and it seems better positioned for recovery. In fact, investors now appear to consider Iceland's debt safer than Ireland's. How is that possible?

Part of the answer is that Iceland let foreign lenders to its runaway banks pay the price of their poor judgment, rather than putting its own taxpayers on the line to guarantee bad private debts. As the International Monetary Fund notes — approvingly! — private sector bankruptcies have led to a marked decline in external debt. Meanwhile, Iceland helped avoid a financial panic in part by imposing temporary capital controls — that is, by limiting the ability of residents to pull funds out of the country.

And Iceland has also benefited from the fact that, unlike Ireland, it still has its own currency; devaluation of the krona, which has made Iceland's exports more competitive, has been an important factor in limiting the depth of Iceland's slump.

None of these heterodox options are available to Ireland, say the wise heads. Ireland, they say, must continue to inflict pain on its citizens — because to do anything else would fatally undermine confidence.

But Ireland is now in its third year of austerity, and confidence just keeps draining away. And you have to wonder what it will take for serious people to realize that punishing the populace for the bankers' sins is worse than a crime; it's a mistake.

For more, see Eating the Irish by Paul Krugman, November 25, 2010 at The New York Times.

Healthcare: Study Finds No Progress in Safety at Hospitals

Why is this happening? Lack of competition among hospitals? Lack of information about the error rates?

Efforts to make hospitals safer for patients are falling short, researchers report in the first large study in a decade to analyze harm from medical care and to track it over time.

The study, conducted from 2002 to 2007 in 10 North Carolina hospitals, found that harm to patients was common and that the number of incidents did not decrease over time. The most common problems were complications from procedures or drugs and hospital-acquired infections.

It is one of the most rigorous efforts to collect data about patient safety since a landmark report in 1999 found that medical mistakes caused as many as 98,000 deaths and more than one million injuries a year in the United States. That report, by the Institute of Medicine, an independent group that advises the government on health matters, led to a national movement to reduce errors and make hospital stays less hazardous to patients' health.
Dr. Landrigan's team focused on North Carolina because its hospitals, compared with those in most states, have been more involved in programs to improve patient safety.

But instead of improvements, the researchers found a high rate of problems. About 18 percent of patients were harmed by medical care, some more than once, and 63.1 percent of the injuries were judged to be preventable. Most of the problems were temporary and treatable, but some were serious, and a few — 2.4 percent — caused or contributed to a patient's death, the study found.

The findings were a disappointment but not a surprise, Dr. Landrigan said. Many of the problems were caused by the hospitals' failure to use measures that had been proved to avert mistakes and to prevent infections from devices like urinary catheters, ventilators and lines inserted into veins and arteries. [Emphasis added].

For more, see Study Finds No Progress in Safety at Hospitals by Denise Grady, November 24, 2010 at The New York Times.

Security: Another Take on North Korea

In this poll, the alternative actions which the Washington Post provided aren't even close to those of FoxNews at Security: Let's Have Another War?.

Earlier today, the United States condemned the North Korean artillery attack on the South Korean island of Yeongpyeong. Last week, the North Korean government told American experts that it would dismantle one of its nuclear weapons programs if the United States agreed to a pledge of "no hostile intent." In light of these recent events, weigh in on how the U.S. should proceed.

How should the United States engage with North Korea?
Bilateral talks directly with North Korea 21%
Multilateral talks led by China 39%
The U.S. should not engage with North Korea 40%
This is a non-scientific user poll.

From How Should the U.S. Engage with North Korea? by Ryan Kellett, November 28 at 6:30 at The Washington Post.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Mind: Mother's Fatty Diet Makes Baby Monkeys Afraid of Mr. Potato Head

What monkey mothers eat has a large impact on how skittish their offspring act in stressful situations like stranger danger—or the presence of a Mr. Potato Head in their cage.

According to researchers, even normal monkeys find the toy's large eyes to be mildly stressful. But baby monkeys from mothers who were fed a high-fat diet (over 35 percent of calories from fat, modeled after a typical American diet) had a much stronger reaction to an encounter with the spud man, and also spazzed in the presence of an unknown human.

For more, see Mother's Fatty Diet Makes Baby Monkeys Afraid of Mr. Potato Head by Jennifer Welsh, November 19, 2010 at Discover Magazine blogs.

Politics: Discrimination Against Whites is a Big Problem??

A majority (56%) of Republicans agree that discrimination [against] whites is as big a problem as discrimination against blacks and other minorities, a view shared by only 28% of Democrats and 49% of independents. Among those identifying with the Tea Party, more than 6-in-10 (61%) say discrimination against whites is as big a problem as discrimination against minorities.

Among religious groups, white evangelicals are the only religious group in which a majority (57%) agree that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against minorities. There are also significant generational divides: only one-third of Americans under age 30 believe that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against minorities, compared to half (50%) of Americans age 65 or older.

For more, see Old Alignments, Emerging Fault Lines: Religion in the 2010 Election and Beyond by Robert P. Jones, PH.D. And Daniel COX, November, 2010 at Public Religion Research Institute.

Education: Teaching for America

... the secretary of education, Arne Duncan, offered in a Nov. 4 speech: One-quarter of U.S. high school students drop out or fail to graduate on time. Almost one million students leave our schools for the streets each year. ... One of the more unusual and sobering press conferences I participated in last year was the release of a report by a group of top retired generals and admirals. Here was the stunning conclusion of their report: 75 percent of young Americans, between the ages of 17 to 24, are unable to enlist in the military today because they have failed to graduate from high school, have a criminal record, or are physically unfit. America's youth are now tied for ninth in the world in college attainment.
Three countries that outperform us — Singapore, South Korea, Finland — don't let anyone teach who doesn't come from the top third of their graduating class. And in South Korea, they refer to their teachers as nation builders. [Emphasis added].

For more, see Teaching for America by Thomas L. Friedman, November 20, 2010 at The New York Times.

Security: Let's Have Another War?

Results of a reader poll as of November 25 at 9:30AM ...

President Obama described North Korea's attack Tuesday against a small South Korean island as a "provocative" show of force that "needs to be dealt with," but how? You decide.
YOU DECIDE

What Is Best Response to N. Korea?

Send in the military. Such aggression can't be ignored. 46.3% (33,099 votes)
Engage in tough diplomacy with North Korea, with threat of military action. 25.54% (18,254 votes)
Get international community to condemn North Korea and impose sanctions. 13.48% (9,637 votes)
Go slow. North Korea is irrational, and we don't want escalation. 7.63% (5,455 votes)
Other (leave a comment) 4.96% (3,543 votes)
I don't know 2.1% (1,498 votes)
This is not a scientific poll.

From How Should North Korean Attack Be Dealt with? by You Decide, November 23, 2010 at FoxNews.com.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Economics: Unity at Last -- Against the Deficit-Reduction Proposals

Unity at last -- against the deficit-reduction proposals: Want to know why the Bowles-Simpson, Domenici-Rivlin, or Schakowsky plans to reduce the deficit/debt are unlikely to go anywhere? Just look at these results from our new NBC/WSJ poll. While 66% of voters in the survey say cutting spending was a "major" reason in their support of a candidate in the midterms, a whopping 70% of adults say they are uncomfortable with cuts to Medicare, Social Security, and defense programs -- which just happen to be the biggest sources of federal spending. Another 59% say they're uncomfortable about raising taxes (on gasoline, for example) or changing the tax code (like eliminating deductions on home mortgages) to reduce the deficit. And another 57% are uncomfortable about raising the Social Security retirement age to 69 by 2075 to reduce the deficit. Said NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R): We found a way to unite everybody -- which is producing a deficit commission that managed to irritate every different political constituency.

What was even more amazing about this data: Fully 36% of EVERYONE we surveyed said they were uncomfortable on all THREE facets of the debt commission proposals. Nearly half of that 36% are African-American (46%) and the other half, self-described conservatives (46%). [Emphasis added].

For more, see First Thoughts: Unity at Last by Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg, November 18, 2010 at FirstRead from NBC News.

Healthcare: Think Government Is Bureaucratic and Rationing-Happy? Try Dealing with Insurers.

Here's what we know about government: It's inefficient, and working with it requires endless paperwork and arguments about bureaucrats. And here's what we know about government-run health care: It rations, and is constantly rejecting claims. At least, that's what we think we know.

The Commonwealth Foundation decided to test this knowledge, surveying residents of 11 high-income countries about their insurance-related experiences. Some of the questions asked whether respondents had "spent a lot of time on paperwork or disputes" or found their insurer denied payment or both. In all three categories, America leads the world:

From Think Government Is Bureaucratic and Rationing-Happy? Try Dealing with Insurers. by Ezra Klein, November 18, 2010 at The Washington Post.

Politics: Too Good to Check

On Nov. 4, Anderson Cooper did the country a favor. He expertly deconstructed on his CNN show the bogus rumor that President Obama's trip to Asia would cost $200 million a day.
When widely followed public figures feel free to say anything, without any fact-checking, we have a problem. It becomes impossible for a democracy to think intelligently about big issues — deficit reduction, health care, taxes, energy/climate — let alone act on them. Facts, opinions and fabrications just blend together. But the carnival barkers that so dominate our public debate today are not going away — and neither is the Internet. All you can hope is that more people will do what Cooper did — so when the next crazy lie races around the world, people's first instinct will be to doubt it, not repeat it.

For more, see Too Good to Check by Thomas L. Friedman, November 16, 2010 at The New York Times.

Economics: Buffett to Uncle Sam: Thanks

Financial titan Warren Buffett praised the U.S. government's response to the financial crisis Wednesday, writing in an open letter addressed to "Uncle Sam" that Washington responded well to a "destructive economic force unlike any seen for generations."
"Only one counterforce was available, and that was you, Uncle Sam," Buffett wrote. "Yes, you are often clumsy, even inept. But when businesses and people worldwide race to get liquid, you are the only party with the resources to take the other side of the transaction."
"In the darkest of days, Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner and Sheila Bair grasped the gravity of the situation and acted with courage and dispatch," Buffett writes. "And though I never voted for George W. Bush, I give him great credit for leading, even as Congress postured and squabbled."

And for critics who blame lax government oversight and regulation for the collapse of the housing market, Buffett again defends "Uncle Sam." 0:00 /1:56Ask Buffett: Investment decisions

"In truth, almost all of the country became possessed by the idea that home prices could never fall significantly," Buffett said.

"That was a mass delusion, reinforced by rapidly rising prices that discredited the few skeptics who warned of trouble. Delusions, whether about tulips or Internet stocks, produce bubbles," he added.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, Fortune 500), Buffett's company, might have been the last to fall, "but that distinction provided little solace," he said.

From Buffett to Uncle Sam: Thanks by Charles Riley, November 17, 2010 at CNN Money.com.

The letter is Pretty Good for Government Work by Warren E. Buffett, November 16, 2010 at The New York Times.

Mind: To Reach Consensus, Let's Talk Less

When it comes to controversial political issues, we often seek out sources of information that confirm what we already believe — conservatives, in other words, watch Fox News, and liberals lean forward with MSNBC. Along the way, our opinions grow more entrenched — and sometimes more extreme — whether they're reinforced by like-minded groups or challenged by people with whom we disagree.

This concept may also apply to how we process opinions about controversial science and technology issues, according to new research. And groups bracing for some tense national debate on this front — about the environment, stem cell research, climate change — would be wise to take note.

Sometimes the more we discuss the risks and benefits of controversial science, the harder it is to achieve consensus. This idea challenges the belief that we can talk through disagreement if we just keep at it.

For more, see To Reach Consensus, Let's Talk Less by Emily Badger, November 11, 2010 at Miller-McCune.

Taxes: The Bush Tax Cuts and Small Business: What We Know

Would raising their taxes be a job-killer? ... Some research suggests that higher tax rates actually encourage small business formation. Why? Because these firms allow their owners to shelter lots of income, behavior that is more lucrative when rates are higher. Other research suggests that higher rates do retard investment and hiring by existing firms. Donald Bruce and Tami Gurley-Calvez, who study small business for the Hudson Institute, have written a nice review of all these issues.

While we are not certain about what higher taxes will mean for small business, we know these firms will suffer if they are unable to access capital. And to the degree that ever-greater government borrowing makes it harder for these firms to raise money, they and their employees will pay a price. That is the other consequence of keeping taxes low for high earners, which will cost nearly $700 billion over the next decade.

For more, see The Bush Tax Cuts and Small Business: What We Know by Howard Gleckman, August 4, 2010 at Tax Policy Center.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

California: State Deficit Balloons to over $25 Billion

California faces a $25.4 billion budget deficit over the next 20 months - nearly double what some leading lawmakers predicted a week ago - and a solution to this newest crisis is expected to be far more difficult than in years past, the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office said Wednesday.

Declining revenue and lawmakers' past reliance on one-time budget fixes have contributed to the recurring deficit, Mac Taylor, the legislative analyst, said.

For more, see California's Deficit Balloons to over $25 Billion by Wyatt Buchanan, November 11, 2010 at SFGate.

Economics: GOP Has No Credibility on the Economy

Let's compare the last five presidents and see how they did with spending, debt, GDP, and employment.

Republicans increase spending 23% more than Democrats.
Republicans increase the debt 8.6 times more than Democrats!
Democrats increase GDP 17% more than Republicans.
Democrats increase job creation 2.3 times more than Republicans!

For more, see GOP Has No Credibility on the Economy by Fullchat, October 19, 2010 at Daily Kos.

Health: Low Life Expectancy of Physical Laborers

Is it true that life expectancy in the bottom half of the income distribution has barely inched up over the past three decades?

Let's turn next to Social Security. There were rumors beforehand that [Obama's deficit reduction] commission would recommend a rise in the retirement age, and sure enough, that's what Mr. Bowles and Mr. Simpson do. They want the age at which Social Security becomes available to rise along with average life expectancy. Is that reasonable?

The answer is no, for a number of reasons — including the point that working until you're 69, which may sound doable for people with desk jobs, is a lot harder for the many Americans who still do physical labor.

But beyond that, the proposal seemingly ignores a crucial point: while average life expectancy is indeed rising, it's doing so mainly for high earners, precisely the people who need Social Security least. Life expectancy in the bottom half of the income distribution has barely inched up over the past three decades. So the Bowles-Simpson proposal is basically saying that janitors should be forced to work longer because these days corporate lawyers live to a ripe old age. [Emphasis added].

For more, see The Hijacked Commission by Paul Krugman, November 11, 2010 at The New York Times.

Economics: Inflation Is at a Record Low

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the core consumer index was unchanged for the third straight month. In the past year, the core index has risen by only 0.6 percent, the smallest increase since the index began in 1957.
Many leading Republican economists said earlier this week that the Fed's actions risk triggering runaway inflation.

For more, see U.S. Consumer Prices Rise Moderately in October, Inflation Tame by Associated Press, November 17, 2010 at FoxNews.com.

Mind: Science Shows What Sexual Repression Actually Looks like

With the recent election still echoing in everyone's ears, and pundits pundificating about how conservative the country really is, this is a good time to remember the major study done about online pornography subscriptions just 18 months ago.

As reported in the Journal of Economic Perspectives,

  • The rates at which people buy pornography are not wildly different from state to state;
  • States where people vote for conservative candidates buy more porn than states in which people vote for progressive candidates.

And yes, this is after adjusting for factors including broadband access, income, and population.

According to credit card receipts from a national provider of adult entertainment, eight of the top ten pornography-consuming states went Republican in the 2008 election. And the trend goes beyond voting. For example, states where a majority of residents agreed with the statement "I have old-fashioned values about family and marriage" bought more subscriptions per thousand people than states where a majority disagreed. The same difference emerged for the statement "AIDS might be God's punishment for immoral sexual behavior."

And of course the state with the highest per capita purchase of online pornography is ... Utah. Of course.

For more, see Science Shows What Sexual Repression Actually Looks like by Marty Klein, November 8, 2010 at Psychology Today.

Economics: The Myth of Record-High Gold

Gold is at a record only if you fail to adjust for inflation.
The actual record was set 30 years ago, when the price of gold, in today's dollars, hit $2,318 — or 71 percent higher than it closed on Tuesday.

From The Myth of Record-High Gold by David Leonhardt, November 9, 2010 at Economix Blog, New York Times.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Economics: Five Jobless Workers per Opening in September

There were five unemployed workers available for every job opening in the United States in September ....

From Five Jobless Workers per Opening in September by Catherine Rampell, November 9, 2010 at Economix Blog, New York Times.

Mind: Your Future Happiness Depends Less on the Present than You Might Think

You make a lot of decisions based on how you think they will make you feel in the future. Car dealers ask you to think about how happy you'll be driving a beautiful new car. Ads for seafaring cruises ask you to think about how great you'll feel after a relaxing vacation. On the flip side, people work hard for a new promotion believing that if they don't advance in their career, they will be devastated.

The evidence is pretty clear, though, that big positive and negative events don't have an enormous impact on people's happiness. In a 1998 paper in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Dan Gilbert, Tim Wilson, and their colleagues found that college faculty being evaluated for tenure believed they would be quite unhappy if they were denied tenure. Several months after their tenure decision, though, college faculty who had been denied tenure were no less happy than those who had gotten tenure.

... people have difficulty remembering their initial prediction for how they would feel after a positive or negative event. In one study, they asked voters in the 2008 election how they would feel a week after the election if Barack Obama won. Supporters of John McCain rated that they would be quite unhappy. A week after the election, these same voters were contacted again and asked how happy they were. They were also asked to recall how happy they said they would be before the election. These voters were significantly happier than they predicted they would be (that is the affective forecasting error). They also remembered their prediction as being less extreme than it was. That is, they did not remember predicting that they would be very unhappy.

The researchers demonstrated that this poor memory for previous predictions makes it hard for people to learn to predict better in the future.

Do these affective forecasting errors really matter? In fact, these errors may be both a blessing and a curse.

On the positive side, it can be motivating to be very concerned about a future event. College faculty approaching tenure are often quite productive in the years before their evaluation, because they believe that the outcome of this decision will hugely influence their career. Even though the actual tenure decision won't influence their future happiness much, this hard work may still lay important groundwork for their research in years to come.

On the negative side, though, these affective forecasting errors can also lead to bad decisions. If you really believe that a sports car will make you happier, you may overpay to own it. That means that you will spend a lot of money on a purchase that ultimately won't affect your happiness that much.

For more, see Your Future Happiness Depends Less on the Present than You Might Think by Art Markman, November 12, 2010 at Psychology Today.

Politics: Congressional Earmarks

On earmarks, the House GOP leadership has rallied behind a ban, and 11 of 13 newly elected Republicans in the Senate—including Marco Rubio, Pat Toomey, Ron Johnson and Rand Paul—campaigned against these special-interest spending projects that are typically dropped into bills with little debate or scrutiny. A Senate earmark moratorium is sponsored by veterans Tom Coburn (Oklahoma) and Jim DeMint (South Carolina) and newly elected Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire).
As the nearby chart shows, the number of earmarks multiplied from nearly 1,500 in 1994 to a little under 14,000 in 2005—before voters ousted what had become the Grand Old Pork Party. It isn't easy to spend so much money so egregiously that even Nancy Pelosi could campaign as a relative fiscal conservative, but the Tom DeLay Republicans managed the feat in 2006.

For more, see The GOP's Spending Tests, November 16, 2010 at The Wall Street Journal.

Health: Your Friends Are Making You Fat and Lazy

You should befriend fit people says Your Friends Are Making You Fat and Lazy by Catherine Rampell, November 9, 2010 at Economix Blog, New York Times.

Economics: The Two Cultures

Ethan Ilzetzki of the London School of Economics and Enrique G. Mendoza and Carlos A. Vegh of the University of Maryland examined stimulus efforts in 44 countries. In a recent National Bureau of Economic Research paper, they argued that fiscal stimulus can be quite effective in low-debt countries with fixed exchange rates and closed economies.

Stimulus measures are generally not as effective, on the other hand, in countries like the U.S. with high debt and floating exchange rates. The authors of the paper pointed to a series of specific circumstances that complicate, to say the least, the effectiveness of increasing public spending: How much stimulus money ends up flowing abroad? What is the relationship between fiscal policy and monetary policy? How do investors respond to fear of future interest rate increases?

For more, see The Two Cultures by David Brooks, November 15, 2010 at The New York Times.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Politics: Deep Cover

From Deep Cover by Tim Eagan, November 4, 2010 at GoComics.

Economics: Fiscal Truths

This article has a good broad-brush discussion of what it would take to achieve sustainability without raising taxes.

Let's look at one sober analysis, from the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration. Released this year, "Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future" was produced by an all-star, bipartisan cast that included two Republican former directors of the Congressional Budget Office, President George W. Bush's former deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget, and the Cato Institute's director of tax policy.

For much more, see Fiscal Truths, November 7, 2010 at The Washington Post.

Mind: Weighing Risks, Convicts Display Blind Spots

Men imprisoned for murder and other serious offenses have a well-earned reputation for taking dangerous risks. But their problems with risk assessment go deeper than that, a new study finds.

Relative to men who haven't been incarcerated, prisoners generally have a harder time assessing the probability of big gains as well as harsh losses, says psychologist Thorsten Pachur of the University of Basel, Switzerland, who conducted the investigation with Yaniv Hanoch and Michaela Gummerum, both psychologists at the University of Plymouth in England. In experimental lotteries, prisoners display little appreciation of the benefits they stand a good chance of winning and frequently opt for smaller but sure rewards, Pachur and his colleagues conclude in the October Psychonomic Bulletin and Review.

If prisoners generally don't appreciate or consider the consequences of risky options, increasing punishment will not necessarily be successful in reducing crime, Pachur says. Former prisoners may also find it difficult to see the potential upside of taking a chance on an entry-level job or educational opportunities, the scientists suggest.

For more, see Weighing Risks, Convicts Display Blind Spots by Bruce Bower, November 20, 2010 at ScienceNews.

Healthcare: Older Americans Sicker than Brits, but Live Longer

Older Americans are less healthy than their English counterparts, according to new research. Even so, Americans live just as long, or longer, than their cousins across the pond.

And Americans can give credit to their much maligned health care system for keeping them alive, despite their higher rates of illnesses.

Americans are sicker by far than the English, the researchers report today (Nov. 4) in the journal Demography. The finding echoes a 2006 report from the same research group that found white Americans were much sicker than white English residents.

The new study found that 12 percent of the American sample had diabetes compared with 5.9 percent of the English. Cancer was 74 percent more common in the United States, with 9.6 percent of American respondents reporting a cancer diagnosis compared with 5.5 percent of English respondents. America also higher rates of lung disease, heart disease and stroke.

But despite all that extra illness, older Americans don't die earlier than their British counterparts. In the 55 to 64-year-old age group, death rates were equivalent. After age 65, Americans had a slightly greater probability of survival than the English.

The disconnect between disease and mortality is likely due to the tendency of the American health care system to aggressively diagnose and treat illness, Smith said. Americans undergo more screening for diseases such as cancer than Western Europeans and are more likely to get intensive treatment sooner.

"The route that we've chosen to go is a very expensive route," Smith said. "That's why we spend twice as much [on health care] relative to GDP [gross domestic product] as the English do. But we get a benefit from it."

"We have a system that has good outcomes at an unsustainable cost, and I'm not sure health care reform has changed that equation," he said.

One problem, Smith said, is that Americans' high rate of illness may fall outside the control of doctors and hospitals.

"Take, just for example, the fact that Americans have bigger bellies than the English," Smith said. "That wasn't done to us by our doctors ... It has a lot to do with what we eat and how much exercise we do."

For more, see Surprise: Older Americans Sicker than Brits, but Live Longer by Stephanie Pappas, November 4, 2010 at Live Science.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Science: Bubbles of Energy Are Found in Galaxy

An interesting image of our galaxy ...

For more, see Bubbles of Energy Are Found in Galaxy by Dennis Overbye, November 9, 2010 at The New York Times.

Economics: What Spending Should the GOP Cut?

Conservatives are starting to talk about where to cut the federal budget. Here are some of their suggestions which add up to cutting $51 billion, leaving $1,300 billion to go.

Some initial targets for GOP reformers, with rough annual savings, could include: community development subsidies ($15 billion), public housing subsidies ($9 billion), urban transit subsidies ($9 billion), and foreign development aid ($18 billion). On the entitlement side, initial cuts could include raising the retirement age for Social Security and introducing progressive price indexing to reduce the growth rate of future benefits.

For more, see What Spending Should the GOP Cut? by Chris Edwards, November 3, 2010 at Cato @ Liberty.

Society: The Crossroads Nation

If you are passionate about fashion, maybe you will go to Paris. If it's engineering, maybe it'll be Germany. But if you are passionate about many other spheres, I suspect you'll want to be in America.

You'll want to be in the U.S. because English has become the global language. You'll want to come because American universities lead the world in research and draw many of the best minds from all corners of the earth.

You'll want to be there because American institutions are relatively free from corruption. Intellectual property is protected. Huge venture capital funds already exist.

Moreover, the United States is a universal nation. There are already people there with connections all over the world. A nation of immigrants is more permeable than say, Chinese society.

You also observe that America hosts the right kind of networks — ones that are flexible and intense. Study after study suggests that America is one of those societies with high social trust. Americans build large, efficient organizations that are not bound by the circles of kinship and clan. Study after study finds that Americans are not hierarchical. American children are raised to challenge their parents. American underlings are relatively free to challenge their bosses. In this country you're less likely to have to submit to authority.

For more, see The Crossroads Nation by David Brooks, November 8, 2010 at The New York Times.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Politics: Obama's Trip Costs More Per Day Than the War in Afghanistan

More about the baloneysphere (after the ad) ...

From Doubtsourced November 8, 2010 at The Daily Show.

Taxes: Support Increases for Permanent Estate-Tax Repeal

More people would rather pay their taxes before they die than after ...

A recent Harris Interactive poll found two-thirds of American voters support permanent repeal [of estate taxes]. Another recent poll by Ayres, McHenry and Associates found nearly half of self-identified Democratic voters oppose the tax returning to pre-2001 levels, which it is slated to do in January.

Absent congressional action, the estate tax will be reinstated next year and slap a 55 percent tax on estates worth more than $1 million.

From Support Increases for Permanent Estate-Tax Repeal by Jay Heflin, November 4, 2010 at The Hill.

Mind: Men Are like Pez

After a couple described their marital problems to a therapist ...

What's the disconnect here? On a behavioral level, they're just caught in a loop of mutual and escalating attack. But applying Brizendine's distinctions about empathy shines a slightly different light on the interaction.

First, Andrew is trying — really trying — to understand Lacy's anguish by using his analytical TPJ. But Andrew's cognitive empathy may be overwhelmed by the pace and verbal power of Lacy's emotional processing. At the same time, Lacy's MNS is scanning futilely (especially Andrew's face) for emotions that just aren't there. Andrew has them on hold as he tries furiously to get the situation organized in his head. Lacy begins to panic because there's no one home over there. She's feeling abandoned, once again. Andrew becomes increasingly frustrated and angry because neither his analysis nor his solutions are producing any relief for Lacy.

In other words, the loop that Andrew and Lacy are caught in includes not just a spiral of mutual attacking, but a sincere mutual attempt to understand and take care of each other. Unfortunately, it's as if they are looking at each other through the opposite ends of a telescope.

Brizendine's idea of cognitive vs. emotional empathy, for instance, springs to life in the faces of Andrew and Lacy as they miss each other's meaning again and again during their fight. While Andrew can tolerate a few seconds of feeling Lacy's emotions in his own body during an argument, he switches quickly to a more cognitive mode to shut out the internal distraction, and instantly loses his gut level connection to Lacy's feelings. Lacy, meanwhile, experiences Andrews analytical probing as mechanical and unloving. Lacy's oft-repeated protest you just don't get it is as infuriating to Andrew as his frustrated you're crazy is to her.
Like the cognitive/emotional gap between sexes, the verbal/mechanical split can play out dramatically in therapy when one partner (often a male) has far less ability to describe or even name emotions. It's surprisingly common, at least in my practice, that a man will have trouble saying more than I feel bad or I feel good. When you press for more specificity, he goes painfully blank. This can lead the other partner (often a woman) to feel frustrated, unseen and unappreciated in her full emotional complexity.

Once, in a session with Andrew, as I was encouraging him to just articulate what feeling was right there, on top (in this case, feeling criticized), Lacy snatched up a Pez dispenser that had been left in my office by a child and shouted, Like this, Andrew. She popped out five tabs in quick succession. Just say the first thing, then the second, then the third. Like that. Her outburst shut everybody up for a beat or two, then all three of us laughed out loud.

For much more, see Russell Collins: Men Are like Pez by Russell Collins, November 3, 2010 at Noozhawk.

Climate: Confessions of a Climate Crisis Skeptic

Here's an article by a professor [of Architecture] at the University of Houston arguing:

  • Climate has changed naturally forever.
  • Some scientists have been wrong.
  • Therefore, humans are not causing climate change.
  • And by the way, global warming would be good.

See Confessions of a Climate Crisis Skeptic by Larry Bell, November 3, 2010 at Forbes.com.

Economics: Pensions Pose Major Challenge for Governments Worldwide

Across the nation, 19 million active and retired firefighters, police, teachers and other state workers are owed so much money that state and local governments are fearful of going bankrupt. In San Jose, Calif., the mayor has said it costs $180,000 a year to employ a firefighter or a cop. And they can retire at 50, sometimes making more than they did while on active duty.
Researchers from Northwestern and the University of Rochester say that the total states' pension shortfall may be as much as $3.4 trillion, and that doesn't even include municipalities.

For more, see Pensions Pose Major Challenge for Governments Worldwide by Spencer Michels, October 27, 2010 at PBS.

Monday, November 8, 2010

Government: Tracking Your Federal Tax Dollars

This is an update of Government: A Taxpayer Receipt.

At the Journal's request, Third Way prepared a receipt for the federal taxes of two couples, showing how much a selection of programs received. (Because of space constraints, the list isn't exhaustive.) The couple with $200,000 income has two children, ages 13 and 17, with one spouse earning $150,000 and the other $50,000. The couple with $100,000 of income is retired, with no dependents.

From Tracking Your Federal Tax Dollars by Laura Saunders, November 6, 2010 at The Wall Street Journal.

Climate: Professional Climate Change Deniers' Crusade Continues

Books such as Merchants of Doubt by science historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway have detailed how front groups for the fossil-fuel industry have been waging an orchestrated, well-funded campaign against climate science and climate scientists for more than two decades.
So why the ongoing attacks against me [Michael Mann] by Cuccinelli and other groups and individuals doing the bidding of the fossil fuel industry? Undoubtedly, it is because of the prominent role our now decade-old "hockey stick" reconstruction of past temperature trends has played in public discourse on climate change. The graphic, which I helped to create while I was a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Massachusetts, tells a simple story: that the warming of recent decades is unprecedented in at least a millennium. This has made it a compelling icon in the climate change debate. It has also made the graphic a compelling target for climate change deniers, who believe that they can discredit all climate science by undermining the credibility of this one graphic.

The problem for them, however, is that dozens of groups, using different statistical methods, different data sources, and so on, have all come to the same conclusion as our study: recent warming is anomalous in a long-term context. In fact, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report extended the period of warming back even further to at least the past 1300 years.

Moreover, the case for human influence on climate change hardly rests on our palaeoclimate research, or even on the entire field of palaeoclimatology. It is based, instead, on multiple lines of evidence and, in particular, the match between modern observations and the predictions of simulations using climate models.

For more, see Professional Climate Change Deniers' Crusade Continues by Michael Mann, November 2, 2010 at NewScientist.

Technology: Will Google's Online Operating System Revolutionize the Computer?

That big old hard drive in your computer? Google says you don't need it anymore. The company is also betting you won't need that Windows, Macintosh or Linux stuff either. No, Google wants you to access, operate, and edit all your files on the Internet.

To help with that, the company has developed a lightweight operating system of its own, the first new competition for Windows and Macs in years. It's called Chrome OS. And it could have a profound effect on the way we work with computers.

For more, see Will Google's Online Operating System Revolutionize the Computer? by Blake Snow, October 28, 2010 at FoxNews.com.

Economics: After China's Rare Earth Embargo, a New Calculus

... the unannounced embargo of so-called rare earth minerals [is] ending ...
Despite producing 95 percent of the world's rare earths, China has only 37 percent of the world's proven reserves. Sizable deposits are known to exist in the United States, Canada, Australia, India and Brazil, among other places.
... experts say that any meaningful new production from outside China is at least five years away, and that it will come with its own environmental cost calculus.
The global shortage gives foreign companies a reason to move even more of their rare earth-dependent operations to China, to produce key components for a wide range of products.

For much more, see After China's Rare Earth Embargo, a New Calculus by Keith Bradsher, October 29, 2010 at The New York Times.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Healthcare: Health Insurance Costs to Employers and Employees, 1999 to 2009

From Health Insurance Costs to Employers and Employees, 1999 to 2009, November 1, 2010 at Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Taxes: Voting for Status Quo

In yesterday's ballot initiatives on taxes, voters mostly chose the status quo, rejecting measures that would have raised new taxes but also those that would have repealed existing ones.

For more, see On Taxes, Voting for Status Quo by David Leonhardt, November 3, 2010 at Exonomix Blog, New York Times.

Government: The Trouble with Public Sector Unions

From a long article which argues that government employee unions should not be allowed to bargain ...

As private-sector unions have withered, public-sector unions have grown dramatically. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, in 2009, for the first time ever, more public-sector employees (7.9 million) than private-sector employees (7.4 million) belonged to unions. Today, unionized workers are more likely to be teachers, librarians, trash collectors, policemen, or firefighters than they are to be carpenters, electricians, plumbers, auto workers, or coal miners.
In today's public sector, good pay, generous benefits, and job security make possible a stable middle-class existence for nearly everyone from janitors to jailors. In the private economy, meanwhile, cutthroat competition, increased income inequality, and layoffs squeeze the middle class.
When it comes to advancing their interests, public-sector unions have significant advantages over traditional unions. For one thing, using the political process, they can exert far greater influence over their members' employers — that is, government — than private-sector unions can. Through their extensive political activity, these government-workers' unions help elect the very politicians who will act as "management" in their contract negotiations — in effect handpicking those who will sit across the bargaining table from them, in a way that workers in a private corporation (like, say, American Airlines or the Washington Post Company) cannot. Such power led Victor Gotbaum, the leader of District Council 37 of the AFSCME in New York City, to brag in 1975: "We have the ability, in a sense, to elect our own boss."

Since public-sector unions began to develop in earnest, their importance in political campaigns has grown by leaps and bounds. Starting from almost nothing in the 1960s, government-workers' unions now far exceed private-sector unions in political contributions. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, from 1989 to 2004, the AFSCME was the biggest spender in America, giving nearly $40 million to candidates in federal elections (98.5% of it to Democrats). It is important to stress that this was spending on federal elections; the union represents mostly state and local workers. But given the magnitude of federal contributions to state budgets, the AFSCME is heavily involved in electioneering to shape Washington's spending in ways that protect public workers and the supply of government services. And so over that 15-year period, the AFSCME was willing and able to outspend any other organization in the country.

By contrast, as economist Richard Freeman has written, "public sector unions can be viewed as using their political power to raise demand for public services, as well as using their bargaining power to fight for higher wages." The millions spent by public-employee unions on ballot measures in states like California and Oregon, for instance, almost always support the options that would lead to higher taxes and more government spending. The California Teachers Association, for example, spent $57 million in 2005 to defeat referenda that would have reduced union power and checked government growth. And the political influence of such massive spending is of course only amplified by the get-out-the-vote efforts of the unions and their members. This power of government-workers' unions to increase (and then sustain) levels of employment through the political process helps explain why, for instance, the city of Buffalo, New York, had the same number of public workers in 2006 as it did in 1950 — despite having lost half of its population ....
A further important advantage that public-sector unions have over their private-sector counterparts is their relative freedom from market forces. In the private sector, the wage demands of union workers cannot exceed a certain threshold: If they do, they can render their employers uncompetitive, threatening workers' long-term job security. In the public sector, though, government is the monopoly provider of many services, eliminating any market pressures that might keep unions' demands in check. Moreover, unlike in the private sector, contract negotiations in the public sector are usually not highly adversarial; most government-agency mangers have little personal stake in such negotiations. Unlike executives accountable to shareholders and corporate boards, government managers generally get paid the same — and have the same likelihood of keeping their jobs — regardless of whether their operations are run efficiently. They therefore rarely play hardball with unions like business owners and managers do; there is little history of "union busting" in government.
Finally, public-sector unions enjoy a privileged position in relation not only to their private-sector counterparts but also to other interest groups. Public-sector unions have automatic access to politicians through the collective-bargaining process, while other interest groups must fight for such entrée. Government unions can also more easily mobilize their members for electoral participation than other interest groups can — since they are able to apply pressure at the workplace and, in many cases, can even arrange for time off and other benefits to make members' political activism easier. Furthermore, most interest groups must devote a great deal of time and effort to fundraising; public-sector unions, on the other hand, enjoy a steady, reliable revenue stream, as union dues are deducted directly from members' paychecks (often by government, which drastically reduces the unions' administrative costs).

Taken together, the intrinsic advantages that public-sector unions enjoy over private-sector advocacy groups (including private-sector unions) have given organized government laborers enormous power over government at the local, state, and federal levels; to shape public finances and fiscal policy; and to influence the very spirit of our democracy. The results, unfortunately, have not always been pretty.

A UNIONIZED GOVERNMENT

The effects of public-sector unionism can be grouped under three broad headings. The first centers on compensation, which includes wages, pensions, health care, and other benefits easily valued in monetary terms — the core issues at stake in collective-bargaining negotiations.
The second involves the amount of government employment, or the size of government, as reflected in the number of workers and in public budgets.
The third involves the productivity and efficiency of government services. Insofar as unions negotiate detailed work rules, they share the power to shape the day-to-day responsibilities of public servants — which influences what government does, and how well it does it.

These are complex matters that are hard for social scientists to measure, and on which scholars disagree. Nevertheless, the evidence supports a few broad conclusions.

Most economists agree that public-sector unions' political power leads to more government spending. And recently, Chris Edwards of the Cato Institute documented how government unionism has abetted growth in public-sector compensation. Generally speaking, the public sector pays more than the private sector for jobs at the low end of the labor market, while the private sector pays more for jobs at the high end. For janitors and secretaries, for instance, the public sector offers an appreciably better deal than the private economy: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average annual salary for the roughly 330,000 office clerks who work in government was almost $27,000 in 2005, while the 2.7 million in the private sector received an average pay of just under $23,000. Nationwide, among the 108,000 janitors who work in government, the average salary was $23,700; the average salary of the 2 million janitors working in the private sector, meanwhile, was $19,800.

For workers with advanced degrees, however, the public-sector pay scale is likely to be slightly below the private-sector benchmark. Private-sector economists, for instance, earn an average of $99,000 a year, compared to the $69,000 earned by their government colleagues. And accountants in the corporate world earn average annual salaries of $52,000, compared to $48,000 for their public-sector counterparts.

When all jobs are considered, state and local public-sector workers today earn, on average, $14 more per hour in total compensation (wages and benefits) than their private-sector counterparts. The New York Times has reported that public-sector wages and benefits over the past decade have grown twice as fast as those in the private sector. These aggregate pay differentials stem partly from the fact that government work tends to be more white-collar, and that public employees tend to be better educated and more experienced, and to live in urban areas. Another factor is the hollowing out of the middle of the income distribution in the private sector. But union influence still plays a major role.

When unions have not been able to secure increases in wages and salaries, they have turned their attention to benefits. USA Today journalist Dennis Cauchon notes that, since 2002, for every $1-an-hour pay increase, public employees have gotten $1.17 in new benefits; private-sector workers, meanwhile, have received just 58 cents in added benefits. Of special interest to the unions has been health care: Across the nation, 86% of state- and local-government workers have access to employer-provided health insurance, while only 45% of private-sector workers do. In many cases, these plans involve meager contributions from employees, or none at all — in New Jersey, for instance, 88% of public-school teachers pay nothing toward their insurance premiums.

The unions' other cherished benefit is public-employee pensions. In California, for example, state workers often retire at 55 years of age with pensions that exceed what they were paid during most of their working years. In New York City, firefighters and police officers may retire after 20 years of service at half pay — which means that, at a time when life expectancy is nearly 80 years, New York City is paying benefits to 10,000 retired cops who are less than 50 years old. Those benefits quickly add up: In 2006, the annual pension benefit for a new retiree averaged just under $73,000 (and the full amount is exempt from state and local taxes).

How, one might ask, were policymakers ever convinced to agree to such generous terms? As it turns out, many lawmakers found that increasing pensions was very good politics. They placated unions with future pension commitments, and then turned around, borrowed the money appropriated for the pensions, and spent it paying for public services in the here and now. Politicians liked this scheme because they could satisfy the unions, provide generous public services without raising taxes to pay for them, and even sometimes get around balanced-budget requirements.

For much more, see The Trouble with Public Sector Unions by Daniel Disalvo, Fall, 2010 at NationalAffairs.com.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Economics: Americans Aren't Saving Enough for Retirement, Study Finds

The typical middle-age American is saving far too little for retirement, and the Employee Benefit Research Institute has estimated the shortfall: an average of $47,732 per individual over the course of that person's retirement.

The number was intended to show how much additional income future retirees — in this case, people currently 36 to 62 — would need to sufficiently cover basic expenses and uninsured health care costs upon reaching retirement age.

Beware ladies ...

From Americans Aren't Saving Enough for Retirement, Study Finds by Catherine Rampell, October 21, 2010 at Exonomix Blog, New York Times.

Politics: Goals Worth Fighting for

Indeed ...

Facing all these challenges at once, Obama did what seemed natural. He turned to his outsized Democratic majorities in Congress and said essentially, "Folks, I need you to fix this."

The Democrats on Capitol Hill were eager to respond, but they did so in the way that they always will. Instead of acting promptly and with discipline, they dallied and used the delays to bargain for better benefits for their constituents and contributors.

What began as a sound economic stimulus, along with health-care and energy bills, became a swollen, expensive and ineffective legislative monstrosity.

Somewhere along the way, Obama lost sight of his campaign pledge to enlist Republican ideas and votes. Maybe they were never there to be had, but he never truly tested it. And the deeper he became enmeshed in the Democratic politics of Capitol Hill, the less incentive there was for any Republican to contribute to his success.

The president's worst mistake may have been avoiding even a single one-on-one meeting with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell until he had been in office for a year and a half. To make up, the outreach to McConnell and likely House Speaker John Boehner should begin at once and continue as a high priority.

Obama tried governing on the model preferred by congressional Democrats and the result was the loss of Democratic seats and his own reputation. Now he should try governing his own way. It cannot work worse, and it might yield much better results.

For more, see Goals Worth Fighting for by David S. Broder, November 4, 2010 at The Washington Post.

Mind: Researchers Find the 'Liberal Gene'

Don't hold liberals responsible for their opinion -- they can't help themselves.

A new study has concluded that ideology is not just a social thing; it's built into the DNA, borne along by a gene called DRD4. Tagged "the liberal gene," DRD4 is the first specific bit of human DNA that predisposes people to certain political views, the study's authors claim.

And the key to it all: Liberals are more open, said lead researcher James H. Fowler, a professor of both medical genetics and political science at the University of California, San Diego.

"The way openness is measured, it's really about receptivity to different lifestyles, for example, or different norms or customs," he told FoxNews.com. "We hypothesize that individuals with a genetic predisposition toward seeking out new experiences [a measure of openness] will tend to be more liberal" -- but only if they had a number of friends when growing up, Fowler cautioned.

By matching genetic information with maps of each individual's social network, the researchers were able to show that people with a specific variant of the DRD4 gene were more likely to be liberal as adults -- though only if they had an active adolescent social life.
"Ideology is about 40 percent heritable. It's almost half genes and half environment," Fowler told FoxNews.com.

For more, see Researchers Find the 'Liberal Gene' by Jeremy a. Kaplan, October 28, 2010 at FoxNews.com.

Society: Latitudes Not Attitudes: How Geography Explains History

From a long, interesting article ...

Most people, at some point or another, have wondered why the West rules. There are theories beyond number. Perhaps, say some, westerners are just biologically superior to everyone else. Or maybe western culture is uniquely dynamic; or possibly the West has had better leaders; or the West's democratic politics and its Christianity might give it an edge. Some think western domination has been locked in since time immemorial: others that it is merely a recent accident. And, with many westerners now looking to China's double-digit economic growth to pull the world out of recession, some historians even suggest that western rule has been an aberration, a brief interruption of an older, Sinocentric, world order.
Humans may all be much the same, wherever we find them, but the places we find them in are not. Geography is unfair and can make all the difference in the world.

For much more, see Latitudes Not Attitudes: How Geography Explains History by Ian Morris, October 20, 2010 at History Today.

Taxes: Merely Affluent vs. Truly Rich

Most people know that the top income tax rates used to be much higher than they now are. What's much less known is that the top brackets started at much higher income levels than today's top brackets do. In other words, the tax code used to draw sharper distinctions between the merely affluent and the truly rich.
In 1960, the top tax bracket — with a marginal rate of 91 percent — started at $400,000, which is the equivalent of almost $3 million today, as I mentioned in my column this week. These days, the top bracket starts at just a small fraction of $3 million: $373,650.
In 1970, the top bracket started at $1.1 million in today's terms ($200,000 in 1970 dollars). In 1980, the top threshold was $571,000 in today's terms. Since the early 1990s, the cutoff has been roughly where it is now, adjusted for inflation.

From Merely Affluent vs. Truly Rich by David Leonhardt, November 2, 2010 at Exonomix Blog, New York Times.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Diversion: Constructive Comments

From Constructive, October 23, 2010 at xkcd.

Politics: Poll: Business Leaders Pressured to Donate to Campaigns

American business leaders are concerned about the pressure they feel to donate to political campaigns and the influx of large, undisclosed donations to third-party political organizations that are not required to disclose their sources of funding, according to a new Zogby poll commissioned by the Committee for Economic Development (CED).

The survey found that 60 percent of the over 300 business leaders polled say there is pressure to contribute to political efforts.

Seventy-seven percent of respondents believe that corporations should disclose all of their direct and indirect political expenditures, including money provided to third-party organizations to be spent on campaign ads.

The poll comes on the heels of the January ruling by the Supreme Court in the Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission case that uncapped the amount of money corporations could funnel into political campaigns.

From Poll: Business Leaders Pressured to Donate to Campaigns by Jay Heflin, October 28, 2010 at The Hill.

Economics: Presidency Headed for Fiscal Train Wreck: Roubini

If you want a dose of depressing news, read the following by a currently hot economic guru: Presidency Headed for Fiscal Train Wreck: Roubini by Nouriel Roubini, October 29, 2010 at CNBC.

Mind: Are War Crimes Caused by Bad Apples or Bad Barrels?

The answer: both.

Some evidence supports the bad-apples theory of atrocities.
But ...
... in her 1963 essay on the Nuremberg trials, Hannah Arendt noted that psychiatric evaluations of Nazi mass murderers such as Adolf Eichmann suggested that they were "neither perverted nor sadistic, that they were, and still are, terribly and terrifyingly normal."

For much more, see Are War Crimes Caused by Bad Apples or Bad Barrels? by John Horgan, October 4, 2010 at Scientific American.